2007年2月27日 星期二

Gigabit WiMax bids to be the 4G standard

IEEE bids to define next cellular generation.
Peter Judge, Techworld
26 February 2007

The IEEE has started work on a 1Gbit/s version of WiMax which could seize the coveted "4G" prize, and replace both cellular and WiMax.

The IEEE says it will have the 802.16m standard ready during 2009, and it will use current OFDM and MIMO technologies, with which companies including NTT DoCoMo have already demonstrated Gigabit wireless speeds. It will also have backwards compatibility with the current mobile WiMax standard, 802.16e, and will also be suitable for fixed as well as mobile links.

To get to this Nirvana, there are technology issues, like packing the multiple antennas which the technology requires (NTT DoCoMo used four) into a mobile device - although work is underway to minimise multiple antennas onto PCBs that can be placed inside portable devices.

The larger problem will be the political one: if this standard is to converge the two worlds of 3G and WiMax, then an IEEE standard must be accepted as the next step in the cellular roadmap, which is determined by the ITU telecoms standards body, with the operator-led 3GPP group. Although US operator Sprint has adopted WiMax, most operators have been hostile.

印度WiMAX商業營運下半年正式啟動

(記者陳慧玲/台北)27/02/2007
2007年無疑是全球WiMAX網路建置正式啟動的關鍵時刻,但若就服務營運時程來看,由於必須考慮到執照發放、網路建置時間等因素,部份已開發國家如美 國等,多預計在2008年才會展開正式WiMAX網路商業化營運服務。不過,先前就被許多通訊設備大廠視為重要WiMAX發展市場的印度,由於其主要電信 業者如BSNL等,均十分積極推動WiMAX網路建置,因此近來傳出,印度將可能在2007年下半起率先提供WiMAX商業化營運服務,其中包括 BSNL、VSNL等印度電信業者目前都在積極進行WiMAX網路營運測試,而根據VSNL的規劃,希望在2007年下半正式啟動WiMAX商業化營運服 務。

VSNL為印度知名軟體大廠Tata集團旗下的電信網路服務業者,由於VSNL先前購併另一印度電信網路服務業者Primus,取得 WiMAX網路服務營運頻段,並於2006年起開始嚐試性為部份企業提供WiMAX網路服務,而經過先前一段時間的營運測試,VSNL預計將在2007年 下半開始為一般消費性終端用戶提供商業化WiMAX網路服務。而另一印度大型電信業者BSNL也同樣積極投入WiMAX網路建置,預計將在14個區域據點 建立WiMAX營運網路,並逐步啟動實際商業化營運服務。
先前阿爾卡特朗訊(Alcatel-Lucent)曾宣佈其與印度當地機構合資成立研究中心,為印度當地提供WiMAX網路區域性營運服務測試,由於印度 目前仍有許多區域相對缺乏有線通訊網路基礎建設,而在經過此一區域性測試之後,讓許多電信業者對於透過無線寬頻WiMAX技術解決通訊基礎建設問題寄予厚 望。

而就設備採購來看,目前傳出VSNL與BSNL均係與WiMAX設備廠商Aperto採購部份WiMAX基地台與用戶端設備,不過也 有印度電信業者表示,後續若要將WiMAX商業化營運服務拓展至一般消費者,用戶端設備價格過高將會是必須解決的問題,以目前WiMAX用戶端設備動輒高 達250~300美元的水準來看,將影響一般消費者採用WiMAX網路服務的意願。

IEEE開發802.16m標準 相容WiMAX和4G

賽迪網訊】2月27日消息,據美國電氣電子工程學會(IEEE)最新公佈的802.16 無線寬帶技術草案文本,該機構目前正在研究一項無線傳輸新標準-802.16m。據稱新標準至少還需一到兩年才能出臺,IEEE的文件顯示,使用該標準後,無線數據傳輸速率可達1Gb。事實上,802.16m是滿足速率達1Gb每秒的"nomadic"傳輸模式或高效強信號模式所必需的條件。

據國外媒體報道,802.16m標準在"快速移動狀態"下的傳輸速率可達100Mb 每秒。新標準之所以能達到以上速率,主要歸功於MIMO(多輸入多輸出)技術,802.11g 和 802.11n標準路由器及接入節點目前已廣泛採用MIMO技術。54Mb每秒的路由器在採用了MIMO技術之後,理論傳輸速率可達108Mb每秒。

IEEE委員會表示,802.16m標準不屬於WiMAX標準,但可以在兩標準之 間建立一個共用平臺。據稱802.16m標準還可以相容未來的4G標準網路,預計4G無線網路兩到三年之後會在手機中得到應用。4G技術將以OFDMA標 準為基礎,到時目前的WCDMA和CDMA2000兩項標准將不再使用。而IEEE表示,802.16m標准將相容OFDMA技術。

802.16m 標准將大大提高移動設備的數據傳輸速率,但IEEE打算首先將該技術應用於軍事領域,然後才向民用市場全面推廣。IEEE的一份有關802.16m 標準的文件顯示,應用於軍事將有助於推動該項標準早日出爐。(n104)

4G衍進再起爭論:沃達豐轉變態度示好WiMAX

電信運營商可能被迫選擇WiMAX,或採取多網路技術策略。”2月13日,全球知名電信運營商沃達豐CEO Arun Sarin在2007巴塞羅那3GSM大會上發表演講稱,與WCDMA的4G衍進還停留于標準階段相比,WiMAX已是可商用的技術。

Arun Sarin認為,儘管WiMAX要真正威脅到行動通訊還有一段距離,但GSM協會和電信廠商們應加速推出WCDMA的4G衍進技術——LTE(Long Term Evolution)。

ITU (國際電信聯盟)對4G的定義為:移動狀態下能夠達到100Mbps的傳輸速率,靜止狀態下能夠實現1Gbps的速率。但如何實現從3G到4G的過渡,業 界一直有不同觀點,有的公司認為從WCDMA向LTE衍進代表4G,有的公司則認為WiMAX才是4G的正確方向。

有意思的是,說者無心,聽者有意。Arun Sarin的演講內容在此次3GSM大會上產生了完全相反的理解。

“在我們看來,Arun Sarin的意思是,如果LTE進展緩慢,運營商將有可能部署WiMAX網路。”一位諾基亞人士向記者表示,此前,以沃達豐領軍的歐洲運營商一直堅定支援 GSM/WCDMA,不願談及WiMAX,Arun Sarin此次的表態,“意味著WiMAX可能在歐洲市場獲得前所未有的轉機”。

而在第二天出版的3GPP會刊上,Arun Sarin的演講則被解讀為“沃達豐要求加快LTE發展速度,以應對WiMAX的攻勢”。

事實上,由於對4G不同的理解和態度,令整個3GSM大會都充斥著爭論的硝煙,WiMAX正是爭論的焦點。

一方面,幾乎所有WCDMA運營商都沒有放棄選擇向HSDPA/HSUPA的演進,而設備廠商們也在不斷推出新的設備。比如愛立信便展示了新的HSDPA/HSUPA升級技術,可以提供144Mbps的高速數據傳輸。

另一方面,美國電信運營商Sprint則將自己展臺的所有位置都留給了WiMAX,Sprint和它的WiMAX合作夥伴三星、諾基亞、摩托羅拉和英特爾,將“WiMax is here”的廣告語幾乎挂滿了會場。

此外,高通等CDMA廠商則表示,UMB(CDMA EV-DO C版本)將可以帶來更好用戶體驗的4G,高通將該技術重命名為超級移動寬帶,將在今年對外演示。

WiMAX突進

與其他技術相比,很多廠商對WiMAX的態度一度相對猶豫。特別是由於3G陣營,尤其是WCDMA設備廠商的打壓,WiMAX長期以來未得到大規模的應用。

儘管在本次3GSM大會上,關於誰將主導4G的爭論仍然持續,但越來越多廠商都已開始慎重考慮WiMAX。

2月13日,諾基亞全球CEO康培凱表示,諾基亞將在明年上半年推出首款採用WiMAX技術的手機。儘管他表示,諾基亞西門子不會放棄3G,開發WiMAX只是針對新興市場。

此外,阿爾卡特朗訊則在本次3GSM大會上宣佈了最新的WiMAX商用實驗;三星發佈歐洲首款支援移動WiMAX技術的手機產品;摩托羅拉宣佈將推出WiMAX手機;愛立信的Femtocell基站宣佈要支援WiFi應用。

“與LTE相比,WiMAX最大的優勢在於成本較低。”一位英國Airspan公司人士向記者表示,WCDMA產業鏈已經被少數廠商佔據,其他廠商如要發 展LTE,需要交納高額的專利費,而且網路的建設成本也遠高於WiMAX.此外,WiMAX對高速率數據業務的支援以及技術成熟度目前也優於WCDMA的 升級技術,“這讓更多的廠商最終選擇WiMAX或同時研發以應對競爭。”

據2006年下半年BDA的統計數據,Airspan佔全球固定WiMAX市場20%的份額。

手機內容應用的井噴,也讓WiMAX的這種優勢得到更大發揮。比如手機電視方面,華為、高通、愛立信、諾基亞、松下等公司也分別推出各自的手機電視業務或產品。

事實上,在2006年,WiMAX在全球的部署已經開始突破。據了解,2005年,全球發佈了85個WiMAX以及類WiMAX網路合同,而僅2006年上半年這一數字已上升到58個。

WiMAX市場增長緩慢 GSM陣營有望持續佔優

近日,市場研究公司Dell'Oro集團發佈調查報告稱,未來5年內,GSM技術仍將在全球行動通訊市場佔居優勢地位,而WiMAX無線寬帶接入標準最早要到2011年才會實現50%的年均增長率,且市場份額也只有5%左右。

Dell'Oro 分析師格雷格·科林斯表示,今後5年中,WCDMA標准將搶走EV-DO標準的一些市場份額。他認為,雖然不少業界人士看好WiMAX增長前景,但鋻於該 標準的語音通話能力不強,可能導致WiMAX市場增長緩慢;相反,WCDMA和EV-DO標準都與手機通話關係密切,因而能受到多數手機用戶的歡迎。

Dell'Oro 預計,2011年時,WiMAX網路設備銷售額有望達到20億美元。英特爾和其他WiMAX支援者此前曾表示,隨著全球寬帶接入普及率的提高,將促使 WiMAX成本下降。但科林斯認為,如果WiMAX市場增長率不高,則很難在短期內使價格具有吸引力。Dell'Oro稱,目前多數GSM運營商正向 WCDMA升級,其中包括HSUPA(高速上行分組接入)和LTE(長期演進)技術。CDMA標準已在美國本土及南韓等國佔居了優勢地位。但科林斯表示, 印度、巴西等國一些CDMA運營商正計劃轉向WCDMA標準,部分原因是為了方便其他國家GSM用戶到本國旅遊。Dell'Oro表示,CDMA 3G陣營佔據了2006全年網路設備支出的20%份額,但2011年時該比例將降至13%左右。

2007年2月26日 星期一

TAISEL outbids Nortel to supply WiMAX to Chunghwa Telecom

Press release, February 26; Adam Hwang, DigiTimes.com [Monday 26 February 2007]

Taiwan International Standard Electronics (TAISEL, also called Alcatel TAISEL), on February 16, won an open bid to supply WiMAX equipment to Chunghwa Telecom, having offered NT$79 million (US$2.4 million), almost 10% lower than the price of main competitor Nortel Networks, according to the Chinese-language newspaper Economic Daily News (EDN).

TAISEL is a joint venture of Alcatel and CHT, with the former being the majority shareholder.

The supply will mainly consist of 33 802.16e2005 WiMAX base stations reaching broadband transfer rates of 50-100Mbps, EDN pointed out. TAISEL will begin shipments in March 2007. CHT will use the equipment to establish a few WiMAX corridors along main highways to connect more than 10 industrial parks in Taoyuan County, northern Taiwan, EDN indicated.

Nortel had previously won a contract in early December 2006 to supply WiMAX equipment for CHT's setting up of a WiMAX network in Yilan County, also in northern Taiwan.

Gemtek and AWB to lead Taiwan rivals in production of mobile WiMAX products

Irene Chen, Taipei; Steve Shen, DigiTimes.com [Monday 26 February 2007]

Gemtek Technology and Accton Wireless Broadband (AWB) are likely to lead Taiwan-based network-equipment makers for the production of mobile WiMAX products, with Alpha Networks and CyberTAN Technology expected to follow suit, according to market sources.

Gemtek will begin volume shipments of its mobile WiMAX devices in the second quarter of 2007, which will help push its second-quarter revenues to a relatively high level, said company managing director Kevin Yang.

AWB, a joint venture between Taiwan-based Accton Technology and Tel Aviv-based Alvarion, is to begin small-volume production of mobile WiMAX CPE (consumer premise equipment) products in the second quarter 2007 before commencing volume production in the third quarter, indicated market sources.

CyberTAN has begun the development of mobile WiMAX products, including devices that will meet with IEEE 802.16j standards, said company chairman Gwong-yih Lee. However, Lee declined to specify the company's production timetable for the mobile WiMAX products.

2007年2月24日 星期六

AlcaLu Makes Product Cuts

Alcatel-Lucent has started trimming its extensive product portfolio to give customers a better idea of what technology they can expect from the giant vendor in the future. The company's mobile infrastructure and optical equipment portfolios are the first to have experienced some product cuts.

As CEO Pat Russo explained during today's earnings conference call, it's a move the company's customers needed to hear. A lack of information about which products were likely to survive the Alcatel/Lucent merger led to some carrier customer indecision towards the end of 2006, and that, in turn, contributed to a poor quarter's numbers for the newly formed equipment giant.

"We had to address the portfolio and rationalization -- we had to provide clarity for our people and our customers. For the most part, we have finalized the product portfolio," based around the strategic areas the company is focused on, which Russo said are IMS, 3G, value-added services, next-generation optical and data, and broadband access in fixed and mobile. So, quite broad, really.

Yet Russo was still coy about releasing any details about products that are being discontinued. Only when asked to confirm a particular decision in the wireless business was any detail forthcoming.

Here's what the company has made public. In its fourth-quarter and full-year results presentation today, the company recorded restructuring costs of �577 million (US$749 million). The main components of this were "write-offs of intangible assets related to 3G mobile & optical/data" and "product termination related to 3G mobile & optical/data." General merger-related costs and headcount reductions accounted for less than �60 million ($78 million).

"We did a lot of work in advance [of the merger] in terms of making decisions about the portfolio and the roadmap -- how to blend and merge the feature functionality that's important to the customers, and you need to plan that to go over a couple of years. For the most part that is done, but we couldn't communicate that until we were combined," said Russo.

The process of telling the carriers happens in two phases, added the CEO. "First, we need to talk about the general portfolio, about what customers can expect. That's followed by the more technical briefings that the tech folks want to have to understand specifics around roadmaps, timeframes, and feature functionality. We started this as soon as we could, but we have a lot of customers and it takes a long time."

As a result, the first quarter of this year will also be hurt by some further carrier indecision about purchasing, and revenues are expected to be lower compared with a year ago. And that's another reason the company is making further cost reductions. (See Alcatel-Lucent Job Cull Hits 12,500.)

Russo also claimed that, among the product rationalization decisions, "there were no surprises," and that customer reaction to the decisions made has been "good." She added: "A lot has been done, but there's obviously a lot more to do."

So what has been done?

Evolium 3G pushes up the daisies
Alcatel's home-grown 3G base station is no more. It is an ex product. That much was confirmed in response to an analyst question. Alcatel-Lucent CFO Jean-Pascal Beaufret confirmed that 6,000 Evolium base stations are being ripped out and replaced by Node B UMST access products acquired from Nortel Networks Ltd. (NYSE/Toronto: NT - message board). (See Alcatel Snags Nortel 3G Unit.)

The CFO also noted that �150 million in fourth-quarter charges was related to the discontinuation of that product line.

What this means, in essence, is that a number of small regional operators, and one major operator, are getting better 3G technology. That one major is France Telecom SA (NYSE: FTE - message board)'s national mobile operator, Orange France (Paris: OGE - message board), which deployed Alcatel 3G equipment in Paris, where Alcatel-Lucent has its headquarters. (See Alcatel Trials HSDPA.)

But if Alcatel's 3G base stations have been stamped "end-of-life" and forklifted to the recycling plant, what does that mean for the former Lucent UMTS access gear? It had only one major customer, but what a customer -- Cingular Wireless LLC . (See Lucent, Cingular Prep HSDPA.)

That didn't crop up in the analyst Q&A, and AlcaLu isn't commenting on its status.

The vendor continues to push the message, though, that its roadmap includes the development of next-generation 3G radio access equipment that will incorporate "best of breed" elements from the Nortel, Lucent, and Alcatel lines.

Optical squeeze
The other division to have taken a hit on product rationalization is optical, but the vendor is not providing any further details about exactly what's been terminated there.

Only a few weeks ago, though, the message coming from that division's head of marketing, Tom Goodwin, was that all products (about 20 in total inherited from Alcatel and Lucent) are being supported, and that all commitments to existing customers are being honored. He added, though, that some of the more legacy platforms would be "bid only on a tactical basis."

He told Light Reading that "we are looking at the synergies, the installed base, the current customers, the market forecast, and expectations of future demand," and that decisions would be made about how to move towards an all-packet transport platform.

He also said that, at the time, no products had been terminated. "We are not going to pull products out of the market that are being used by existing customers." That means that some competing products, such as the Alcatel 1696 Metrospan and Lucent's Metropolis Wavelength Services Manager (WSM), will continue to coexist.

Goodwin said that, "where we have a conflict, when [different] products are deployed in the same network, we focus on how they can coexist, and how to migrate to the next-generation path. It's a growth and evolution issue."

Goodwin also said that Alcatel-Lucent will be introducing new products and has the resources to manage what it already has. "I would expect our competitors to pick away at us," but "we understand how the optical markets are going to transform, and we have the best portfolio. We are the market share leader in nearly all markets."



Alcatel-Lucent Spews News

FEBRUARY 13, 2007

BARCELONA -- Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU - message board) today announced the signing of a major contract to become the strategic supplier of advanced wireless communications technology for the mobilkom austria group.

mobilkom austria group will deploy Alcatel-Lucent旧 GSM/EDGE and UMTS/HSPA equipment throughout its network, enabling the service provider to offer its customers faster, more reliable mobile communications services. The Austrian service provider cited the synergy of the newly combined Alcatel-Lucent and its acquisition of Nortel旧 3G UMTS access business as a key reason for awarding this contract.

In a separate release:

SHANGHAI -- Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU - message board) today announced that Shanghai Telecom, a subsidiary of China Telecom, has selected Alcatel-Lucent for a full-scale, citywide network transformation in Shanghai. The contract was signed through Alcatel Shanghai Bell, Alcatel-Lucent旧 flagship Chinese company.

Upon completion of the project, scheduled for the end of June 2007, Shanghai Telecom旧 nine million subscribers in Shanghai will be able to enjoy a full range of multimedia services, such as color ring back tones, universal personal telecommunications, pre-paid telephony and IP bar (a combination of IP telephony, for long distance and Internet browsing). The intelligence behind the delivery of these services is enabled by products from Alcatel-Lucent旧 comprehensive next-generation (NGN) portfolio.

声lcatel-Lucent旧 unparalleled NGN solution will create a modern network capable of delivering new, blended services,� said G廨ard Dega, President of Alcatel Shanghai Bell. 潜everaging our industry-leading solution and rich deployment experience, we partner with operators to bring innovative high quality next generation services to their customers.�

In a separate release:

BARCELONA -- Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU - message board) today announced that it has successfully deployed a multi-service transport network for T-Mobile Czech Republic, a leading mobile operator in the Czech Republic. This deployment is part of the operator旧 IP network transformation plan to transport mobile broadband traffic over a single infrastructure and cost-effectively backhaul legacy and new data services.

The project significantly expands existing network capacity, improving bandwidth provisioning, and creates a future-proof environment to introduce business and entertainment mobile services to T-Mobile旧 5 million existing subscribers.

In a separate release:

BARCELONA -- At the 3GSM World Congress 2007, Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU - message board), in partnership with Iberbanda, will give visitors their first taste of universal WiMAX in the 3.5GHz band, at Alcatel-Lucent旧 hospitality suite.

Visitors will be able to experience nomadic WiMAX in real-life operating conditions using PCs equipped with PCMCIA cards, providing wireless broadband Internet connection and real-time access to various services, such as web browsing, video streaming and Voice over IP.

In a separate release:

BARCELONA -- Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU - message board) today announced that it has been selected by VimpelCom (NYSE: VIP - message board), a leading telecommunications service provider in Russia operating under the "Beeline" brand, to upgrade and enhance the operator旧 wireless network with the latest generation of Alcatel-Lucent旧 GSM/EDGE radio platform, which is based on the industry most advanced hardware architecture. With its compact new design and high performance, this platform will leverage VimpelCom旧 existing radio access network investments while reducing operating expenses.

Following intensive and successful testing carried out jointly with VimpelCom, the new platform is planned for commercial deployment for the first time throughout Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on the operator旧 existing network built on Alcatel-Lucent systems.

Unstrung - WiMax/Broadband Wireless - Faster WiMax on the Way - Wireless Networking News Analysis

Faster WiMax on the Way
02.14.07

BARCELONA -- 3GSM World Congress -- The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) has started working on a new version of the 802.16 standard -- the technology that WiMax is based on -- that could push data transfer speeds up to 1 Gbit/s while maintaining backwards compatibility with existing WiMax radios.

The standards body put together a work plan for the new specification, dubbed 802.16m, at its January session in London. Vendor sources here at the 3GSM show, however, have expressed some skepticism about the speed with the work can be completed (the end of 2009 is being mooted as a baked date) and the chances of maintaining backwards compatibility with mobile 802.16 technology.

The IEEE says it wants to develop a "competitive" and "significantly improved" radio access technology that is "compliant with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) R/IMT advanced requirements for 4G" while maintaining interoperability with the mobile WiMax kit that is just starting to arrive on the market. This will mean up to 1-Gbit/s fixed and 100-Mbit/s data transfer rates and "improved broadcast and multicast and VOIP performance and capacity," achieved through a number of technical tweaks to the air interface.

The muscle behind 802.16m will be multiple-input/multiple-output (MIMO) antenna technology on top of an OFDM-based radio system just like the upcoming "Wave 2" mobile WiMax products being plotted by several silicon vendors. The Wave 2 profile, which is being championed by Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S - message board), is expected to achieve mobile speeds of around 5 Mbit/s by using a two-by-two antenna array. 802.16m could up those speeds, in part, by using larger antenna arrays.

Insiders suggest that the latest work on the 802.16 and WiMax technologies is increasingly being driven by the wants and desires of carriers plotting next-generation mobile networks that will combine VOIP services with a hefty dose of whiz-bang multimedia services -- such as IPTV, streaming video, and fast music downloads. This is different from the initial work on fixed and mobile WiMax, which was pushed heavily by chipset and infrastructure vendors. (See Working for the MAN.)

Some folks worry that carriers have unrealistic expectations on how fast new WiMax profiles and interfaces can be developed. "They just walk in, snap their fingers, and expect it to happen," one industry source told us on the show floor yesterday. After all, it took several years for the IEEE to arrive at a satisfactory fixed broadband wireless specification in the form of 802.16d and even longer for the WiMAX Forum to certify interoperability between products using the technology. (See WiMax Spec Ratified.)

What's really provoking the disbelieving chuckles here at the show, however, is the requirement for backwards capability between current and future 802.16e offerings and the planned advanced air interface. Such disbelief is not that surprising when you think back to the recent interoperability issues between 802.16d and 802.16e. (See WiMax: A Spec Divided.)

Nonetheless -- despite possible future bumps in the road for 802.16m -- the move to develop a faster spec comes even before products based on the current mobile WiMax specification are generally available. This once again indicates the way certain parts of the industry are trying to aggressively push WiMax forward as the only the possible choice for future 4G networks.

— Dan Jones, Site Editor, Unstrung

2007年2月23日 星期五

19檔4i概念股 今年很來勁

呂俊儀/台北報導

Wii、Wimax 、Vista、iPhone等產品及規格陸 續發表,一般統稱「4i」產業,已晉身為今年甚至二○○八年電子產業主流,在相關需求陸續出籠下,4i概念股將有機會逐漸成為電子股人氣薈萃當紅炸子雞, 摩根富林明投顧認為,以今年獲利表現較佳,且每股獲利可超過二元以上,包括建漢(3062)、恩得利(1333)、原相(3227)、鴻準(2354)等 十九檔精選個股擇優佈局,可望搭上火紅的4i新主流。

摩根富林明投信副總吳淑婷表示,去年下半年開始不少科技股陸續反應4i題材,儘管想像空間已經縮小,但整體來說,重量級科技產品推出仍將帶動一波市場新需求,不論相關產品何時發酵,今年仍堪稱應證4i產品重要關鍵年。

據統計,國內電子廠可望受惠公司至少超過五十家,其中又以Vista範圍最廣,涵蓋所有PC產業。吳淑婷認為,PC產業中微軟Vista為 去年以來最被市場期待殺手級應用產品,以JPMorgan預估今年全球PC可望提升至一三.七%,桌上型與NB成長力道都將向上提升,尤其NB全年預計將 可成長二八.八%,建議投資人可多留意PC相關科技股。從十九檔今年獲利高成長4i概念股中,茂德、力晶、創見、奇美電、友達、技嘉等均屬於Vista相關受惠股。

另外今年緊接持續發酵的重量級電子產品還包括Wii及iPhone,其中Wii去年底正式開賣,目前銷售已領先其他兩大遊戲機,ING投信投資長黃媺芸表示,Wii的新使用型態,成功吸引新的遊戲人口加入,未來Wii出貨量不排除有上調空間,台系業者由於擁有完整上、中、下游供應鏈,預期將連帶受惠,惟Wii母廠(任天堂)自製率相對較高,台達電、鴻準、鉅祥及原相後市仍值得追蹤。

至於iPhone,黃媺芸說,iPhone可望由台系廠商取得代工訂單,相關零組件廠具潛在商機,其中包括系統組裝、印刷電路板、記憶體、連接器與機殼等的受惠程度較大。從十九檔績優股中,大立光、可成、恩得利、鴻準今年獲利表現年增率可望都有三成增幅。

至於Wimax方面,一般市場專家認為發酵時程在4i概念股中最晚,不過根據Dataquest估計,Wimax相關產值可望由二○○五年的二千八百萬美元擴張為二○一○年的三十三億美元,年複合成長率高達三一三%。國內網通業者挾全球WiFi市場第一市占率,對於WiMAX商機也是蠢蠢欲動,不過國內業者在Wimax局端設備和IC部分還沒有太明確開發成果,主要商機應該還是落在網通終端設備業者身上。惟法人分析,瑞昱、正文、友勁、華碩等廠商都可受惠。

iPhone Wii短線俏 Vista Wimax長線佳

4i概念股堪稱今年電子產業主要投資主流,不過Vista、iPhone、Wii及Wimax發酵時程各不相同,分析師直言,以國內電子廠 來說,大多屬於零組件或代工廠,因此對於營運實質貢獻上,短期iPhone、Wii營收、獲利可能受惠,但要可長可久仍屬Vista、Wimax較為實 在。

寶來投信2001基金經理人張佩雯表示,4i產品推出時程不同,相關概念股發酵程度也將有所差別,Vista效應已在去年年底企業版推出後效益開始顯現,Wimax去年全球規格底定,今年國內並將釋出Wimax執照,而iPhone遲至六月才會上市,歐、亞洲則要等到年底,相關類股商機到下半年才會正式來臨,以上三i在今年都可見到初步成效。

但個別族群走勢而言,張佩雯認為,Wii發售已近半年,銷售成長動力將逐漸趨緩,再加上PS3分食市場,未來相關IC設計股走勢可能會受到影響。ING投信經理詹茹心也指出,Wii成功吸引新遊戲人口,未來出貨量不排除有上調空間,而因關鍵零組件短缺影響供貨而暫時失利的PS3,隨著此一問題逐漸解決,未來出貨可望逐季改善,SONY遊戲機霸主地位仍不易撼動,且SONY供應鏈業者市場深度相對充足,後市相關概念股股價應有表現空間。

至於Apple明日之星iPhone,張佩雯說,歐、亞洲明年才會上市,相關效應下半年逐漸顯現,初期年出貨量約五至六百萬支,明年則可倍增為千萬支,相關石英元件、鏡頭、照相模組、機殼等相關廠商將可大幅受惠。

詹茹心也強調,以蘋果iPod過去成功經驗,iPhone商機確實存有想像空間,但以往iPod採全數委外代工策略,顯示蘋果與台系廠商合作模式得以有效控制成本,未來台系廠商的系統組裝、印刷電路板、記憶體、連接器與機殼等受惠程度較大,但長期而言,銷售單價下滑,廠商毛利不見得能長久維持,相關概念股光環也會快速退去。

電信業迂迴登陸 搶建灘頭堡

文/林淑惠

大陸,已經成為台灣電信業力挽營收及獲利難以成長的「救生圈」!據了解,台灣行動電話市場因為競爭過於激烈,加上NCC使出連續三年調降電信費率的緊箍咒,電信業者對於今年仍至往後幾年獲利,直呼寸步難行。反觀大陸現有四.六億行動電話用戶、普及率只有三五%,而且,仍以兩位數持續成長中,前景看俏,已經成為電信三雄力挽狂瀾的護身符。

儘管電信業赴彼岸投資仍受限制,但電信三雄明知不可行,卻已著手進行「突圍」行動、匍匐前進。

中華電設環榮當先鋒  其中,中華電信算是電信圈進軍大陸,動作最積極的業者。中華電信預定近期推出跨國小額付款機制。據了解,中華電信旗下已有行動839 、HiNetAAA及市話輕鬆付三種國內小額付款平台,今年跨足國際小額付款機制時,將率先啟動韓國及大陸市場。

其中,大陸的合作對象,初步鎖定中國網通。中華電信指出,該公司與中國網通合作,最重要的考量點就是放眼二○○八年的奧運商機。一般認為,奧運開幕前夕,就會有一波奧運概念股,中華電打算利用兩岸小額付款機制,搶搭奧運概念股的商機

除此之外,中華電信也打算與中國電信或者中國聯通兩家之中的其中一家固網業者,共同爭取大陸3G執照。中華電日前在大陸成立的環榮公司,將成為中華電信前進大陸3G市場佈局的灘頭堡。

中華電信指出,若能順利與大陸電信業者進行更多業務合作甚至是合資,對於中華電信未來營收成長,肯定能夠進一步推升。

不過,現行法令仍限制電信業赴大陸投資,中華電信目前最大股東交通部仍持股四八%左右股權,中華電信要與大陸電信公司合作爭取3G執照,恐怕還得先過陸委會這一關。

也因此,中華電信也可能採取迂迴方式投資大陸,目前,該公司也想出「備胎」方案,包括將「台灣經驗」移植大陸,從事平台、行銷顧問合作。

中華電目前2G用戶加上3G總計八百四十多萬,其中,3G就超過一百萬,經營3G市場的經營將成為前進大陸相當重要的資源

除此之外,中華電信去年斥資新台幣二千零一十六萬元入股春水堂、取得三○%股權之後,不排除加碼投資春水堂、達到超過五○%股權。

據了解,大陸中國移動及中國聯通兩家電信公司已透過旗下SI(系統整合)公司與春水堂公司接觸,打算把台灣的3G行動加值服務引進大陸,屆時,春水堂將成為中華電前往大陸行動加值服務市場卡位最重要的跳板。

除了中華電信,台灣大哥大去年密集處分中華電信持股,並且搭配交通部發行中華電信ADR,短短兩個月就出售中華電信持股取得八十三億五千六百萬元現收入,獲利加計現股利共達近二十六億元,在現金流量大增下,也加快對外投資腳步。

台灣大加碼華友控股

日前,透過其子公司台信電訊百分之百轉投資公孫公司Simax Investment Holdings Ltd.取得華友控股公司(Hurray! Hoiding co., Ltd.)ADR案、共計一百零七萬九千九百二十五單位,總計斥資五百七十七萬美元 ,取得其在美國ADR五.○二%股權比例,透過此,台灣大哥大正式跨足大陸的電信加值產業。

Hurray! Hoiding co., Ltd.是一家內容產業公司,主要經營音樂答鈴等電信加值服務,加上財務相當健全,台灣大評估一個多月就出手,目前仍屬財務性投資,台灣大強調,未來不排除進一步採取策略性投資,換言之,台灣大未來加碼投資大陸華友的可能性很高。

透過華友,邁開台灣大投資大陸行動加值服務的佈局。一般認為,大陸發展加值服務的速度並不比台灣慢,尤其行動電話簡訊及圖鈴下載業務一向驚人,台灣大在大陸的佈局,勢必是市場未來矚目的焦點。

2007年2月17日 星期六

台灣國標 拿下桃縣WiMAX標案

中華電信 (2412)與桃園縣政府合作的行動走廊WiMAX建設案採購案昨(16)日決標,台灣國際標準電子以7,900萬元得標,與競爭者北電差距不到一成,顯示彼此較勁激烈,3月即可在桃園縣政府啟動第四代行動通訊WiMAX服務。

這也是台灣國際標準電子在台灣首次拿下WiMAX標案,之前北電才拿下中華電與宜蘭縣政府標案,未來還有高雄縣政府的採購案,再加上政府開放六張WiMAX執照在即,對產業界而言,今年的商機非常好。

台灣國標將在3月開始交貨,第一批是五個基地台,總計要建設33個基地台,所採用的規格為802.16e2005,即用戶在高速行動中也能照常使用高傳寬頻服務,速率為50M至100Mbps。

中華電信與桃園縣政府合作興建的「行動走廊」,包括硬軟體等各項投資與後續服務,總投資金額約10億元。其中,中華電將自籌6.1億元,並會和桃園縣政府向經濟部工業局爭取約3.1億元的補助經費。

這項計畫是桃園縣長朱立倫提出的,初期將以縣內十多處工業局為主,中華電更將建設方向予以擴大,除工業區外,並增加桃園市、中壢市間的台一線及桃園市延伸到蘆竹鄉南崁兩條區帶,同時將縣府公務部門需求納入多網整合方式規畫。

中華電信為桃園縣設計主行動走廊,主因是桃園縣的面積相當大,不適宜全面投入鋪設無線網路, 以十字形的方式建構行動走廊,將工業區、省道等熱門路線納入,有利爭取企業用戶。據了解,中華電在桃園有不少土地資產,電信研究所也位桃園縣的轄區內,因 而成中華電與桃園縣府的橋樑,中華電在地方縣市政府上的行動通訊服務原來並不很積極,在此之前,只與宜蘭縣合作特定計畫。

中華電信與宜蘭縣合作的WiMAX無線寬頻網路,預期將為宜蘭縣居民、遊客和商務人士的日常生活帶來革命性的影響,同時使宜蘭縣成為全區可提供無線寬頻網路存取的首座示範縣市,包括宜蘭縣中小學線上學習計畫、宜蘭縣政府「行動縣政府」、行動商務,行動觀光導覽以及視訊安全監控服務與網路電視(IPTV)等服務。

新年新氣象 全球電信業齊頭卡位新興通訊網路建置
全球首項WiMAX商業化服務今年3Q問市 寬頻網路升級 光纖網路數十億美元投資啟動

(記者陳慧玲/台北) 自2005年開始,由於網路電話(VoIP)應用需求捲土重來的趨勢確立,網路電信服務如Skype等業者的快速崛起,都加深了電信業者的危機意識,因此 自2006年起,就可看到全球各地大型電信業者均積極規劃新世代通訊網路的建置,而在進入2007年之後,在無線通訊與寬頻通訊領域亦可看到多家電信業者 清楚的網路建置藍圖規劃。其中,在無線通訊部份,就以WiMAX網路建置最為當紅,而有線寬頻網路的升級也在如火如荼的進行中,單單亞太市場電信業者就預 計將投入數十億美元佈建光纖網路。

在無線通訊部份,WiMAX已是眾家廠商有志一同卡位的重要無線通訊網路建置,目前已知的最大 WiMAX網路建置案應是美國Sprint Nextel預計將投入20億~30億美元建置WiMAX網路,並將在2008年上半進行商業化營運。事實上,日前阿爾卡特朗訊(Alcatel- Lucent)就宣佈將為多明尼加無線網路服務業者提供行動WiMAX設備建置,將在2007年第三季推出全球第一個WiMAX商業化服務網路。

以 此來看,相較於Sprint Nextel在2007年下半才逐步展開區域性測試,被視為開發中新興市場的中南美洲電信業者,推動WiMAX商業化營運的腳步明顯較快。以目前業界的預 期來看,相較於通訊基礎建設較為發達的已開發國家市場,WiMAX在開發中國家的新興市場將會被用來取代部份傳統通訊網路基礎建設,並會有更突出的表現。

而 在有線寬頻通訊部份,電信業者為了提升用戶頻寬使用效率,並且增加多媒體影音應用服務的收入,也都在積極進行寬頻網路升級投資。就亞太市場來看,日本市場 應是最早投入光纖寬頻網路建置的市場,但在2007年,包括台灣中華電信(2412)、韓國KT都相繼宣佈將投入光纖網路的建置作業。

其 中,中華電信預計將以5年時間、投入新台幣600億元,完成全台灣光纖網路的鋪設作業,而韓國KT則是於日前宣佈將投入10.6億美元建置光纖到府 (Fiber to the Home;FTTH)網路,用以替代既有的超高速數位用戶迴路(Very High Data Rate DSL;VDSL)與ADSL網路。

根據KT表示,主要會推動此一投資案的主因,就是認為在未來1年內,在網路電視(IPTV)等應用服 務相繼推出後,既有ADSL網路已無法滿足用戶越來越高的網路頻寬需求;而根據韓國政府單位的預估統計資料,未來1年內其VDSL與ADSL用戶數將會持 續下滑,由既有的650萬戶降至540萬戶,取而代之的就會是FTTH用戶,由目前的170萬戶成長至330萬戶。

而除了亞太區電信業者在光纖網路佈建有積極的動作,北美大型電信業者Verizon也早已啟動其光纖網路佈建計畫,投資規模則更為龐大,預計將投入超過200億美元進行FTTP(Fiber to the Premise)網路建置。

不 過,相較於亞太與北美電信業者因應多媒體影音應用的頻寬成長需求,而積極進行既有寬頻網路的升級,在歐洲市場卻有著不一樣的思考。雖然2007年仍將有歐 洲電信業者進行寬頻網路的改造升級,但ADSL2+與VDSL仍是其主要技術選項,其中德意志電信在VDSL網路的推動上就相當積極,也有隸屬於O2電信 集團的寬頻網路電信業者Be Broadband計劃將在2007年於英國推動ADSL2+網路的建置,希望在2007年底前完成此一寬頻網路升級建置。