Marketing Will Be Key to WiMAX Success

WiMAX could be "a catalyst for enormous potential change in telecom," providing service providers with the ability to move straight into "post-convergence networking," according to Boschulte Schnee Group, a market research firm co-founded by Alfred F. Boschulte, former Chairman, CEO and President of NYNEX Mobile (now part of Verizon Wireless), and Victor Schnee, founder of Probe Research and Probe Group. But business and marketing decisions will be a key factor in whether or not WiMAX realizes its potential, BSG maintains.
"WiMAX is like an accelerator, a launch system for change and eventual industry overhaul and restructuring," Boschulte Schnee Group (BSG) asserts. This is the case, BSG believes, because WiMAX "provides Post-Convergence networking and advanced Broadband," transcending the concept of voice versus data and fixed versus mobile networks to provide "a converged access network offering advanced broadband, that can handle voice but wasn't designed for voice as a number one priority and was designed based on IP networking, meaning a flat rather than hierarchical network."
A great deal of effort has already been expended on the technical aspects of WiMAX, and business and marketing decisions are critical now, according to BSG, as "telecom becomes a product sold by marketers." WiMAX should be positioned both as "the redefinition of wireline" and as "converged communications, ultimately a wireless quadruple play" -- a concept BSG dubs "Now Communications." But the degree of change that will occur and "whether WiMAX can become a pivotal development in the process" depends on the unfolding of the following "series of inevitabilities" that are set to disrupt the world of telecom and cable:
The imminent advent of the "post-convergence" era. The "concept of convergence" is "likely to be by-passed by events," as players without significant vested interests in legacy networks "will prefer to build post-convergence access networks, and a high percentage of these will be based on WiMAX, which offers advanced broadband capabilities."
Changing imperatives in the device business. Thus far, says BSG, the major cellular carriers have exerted control over the device vendors, although clearly the vendors would prefer a more open model. BSG believes that Apple's iPhone deal with AT&T is "model shattering" in that Apple will own the iPhone brand name, and consumers will apparently be expected to pay the full price for the devices. "The system of carrier subsidies could, and probably will, begin to fall apart in the next five years," BSG maintains, reflecting "a passage of value from the network to the device."
The mass marketing of telecom. As telecom becomes a product sold to the mass market, it will have to be presented as "a fairly uniform product" that can easily be understood and dealt with by consumers. WiMAX, under the guise of "Now Communications," "should stand up fairly well," offering easily activated phones, network access at the home or office, and service that's "nearly universal, and uniform, as coverage rolls out."
The influence of IT and the Internet industry on content and applications. Transmission companies -- both telcos and cable -- will almost inevitably cease to have any "significant long-term role in the future of information content and applications." Instead, content and applications are "pouring out of the combination of" the IT/Internet industry and the user population. As this trend spells the end of the carriers' restrictive dominance, WiMAX is likely to receive "strong continuing support" from the IT/Internet industry.
BSG sees WiMAX as having "arrived at a fortuitous time" when it can take advantage of these trends. However, WiMAX itself brings only its post-convergence capabilities and advanced broadband -- "Everything else remains to be developed and exploited through skillful marketing and alliances."